If there’s news, then yes. This is a pretty great new release for those still stuck on Qwen3.6 35B A3B if they have enough memory but don’t have super powerful compute.
I wonder if I could get this running through vLLM on 6x Nvidia L4 - the 3.6 worked great on 4 cards but sadly TP6 just isn’t a thing and I don’t have 8 cards available, maybe it’s gonna be okay with like TP2 and MTP. I have no idea at this time, probably need to test out what even might be possible.
This particular release is interesting because it's a preview of qwen4 architecture. And, while benchmarks are iffy, this is a direct comparison, by the same team, with qwen3.8-27b that was pretty well received for a local model.
This "next" release adds a new concept, first public release with n-grams, I think. And it's in a MoE size that is likely to be very fast and cheap to serve (faster than 27b for sure). It's also well suited for inference on alternative compute (i.e. sparks, macs, etc) so it's relevant to local users.
I don’t think that’s the right way to think about LLM ‘knowledge’. They don’t have absolute recall of everything in the training set. They have been trained so that they have weights that can predict what those books might say - that is, if they read them they would find the contents unsurprising. That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be helpful to pull relevant passages of text directly into context for a particular task.
Does it really matter? What about including all relevant and up-to-date literature as skills for local models? I have no experience with this but I am pretty sure someone has already thought about it.
For world knowledge, you'd want it to find and reference the source material to be sure. At that point, it doesn't matter if the knowledge is embedded.
I think the big models have adequate recall, so tool use is probably unnecessary, but the user said the correctness of my response is important. Let me look up the data instead of relying on my memory.
Ex - nodejs natively supports a huge set of typescript with built-in type stripping these days. But ask most hosted models to build a typescript project and they default to a heavy compile step, or a tool like tsx, ts-node, etc.
Models with lots of "world knowledge" have a good chunk of that knowledge go stale, and there's no real way to refresh it without training a new model.
Another classic example of this back in the day was to ask who the president of the US was, and watch different models happily give different answers based on the date they were trained.
---
Personally, I'm really interested to see if we're headed towards a spot where the model is entirely distinct from the knowledge store.
We're vaguely there with the ability for models to go search the web, but I think the reliability of that path is going to continue declining (more and more spam content, less and less genuine value).
I kinda want a paradigm where I can pick and engine and a knowledge bank, and combine them as I please.
Ex - if I'm doing gardening, I can pick "gardening for models (version 32)" as my knowledge store.
If I'm doing auto-repair... "cars for dummies (version 3)". etc...
> Personally, I'm really interested to see if we're headed towards a spot where the model is entirely distinct from the knowledge store.
This is what I've been trying to focus on with local AI for now. I've been trying to build all new documentation so it's more AI friendly. It's been pretty interesting. Qwen-35BA3B with a small prompt does a good job of surfacing what I'd consider institutional knowledge.
I've been trying to silo the docs I write from the model with a prompt that tells it not to use general knowledge unless asked to. From the anecdotal testing I did, Qwen-35BA3B is great for it. It does a really good job of following the prompt and calling tools, so I've been able to play around a lot to see what seems to work best.
Ultimately, I think one of the most effective uses of AI will be having a distinct knowledge store combined with an opinionated agent (and sub-agent) setup along with different models for each task.
Who owns the knowledge store is going to be the big caveat. Right now I think the big online models are trying for generic, persistent memory and I'd be very hesitant to let that happen. Think of having someone with a perfect memory following you around forever, but someone else has the ability to make them disappear. That's not a good situation.
One of the consequences of encountering a lot of LLM generated text which includes things the model vaguely remembers from its training is that honestly I have grown less tolerant even of human comments and documents that are based on mostly ‘I seem to recall that…’ level sourcing.
In a discussion on economic history, say, someone will opine that Alexander Hamilton had some particular opinion about tariff policy… based on their having a vague memory of a blog post where someone quoted a passage in support of some point. But wait - you can search the federalist papers, the text’s right there to be read, before you commit to saying online ‘Hamilton thought tariffs were a great idea’ you could take your internal ‘I seem to recall reading something about hamilton’s opinion on tariffs’ thought and turn it into a little RAG query where you pull up a source and check before you put another factoid out onto the internet.
And so I feel absolutely the same way about LLMs. I don’t care how much factual information was in the training data, when the LLM wants to rely on something it vaguely recalls having been trained on, it owes it to me to dig up a source and vet it.
There are limits to this, of course. I don’t want it to be thinking ‘but wait, maybe my memory of Python syntax is faulty. Is = used for assignment? <web search>…’.
But in general some caution about repeating vaguely recalled easily checked facts is warranted.
At 125B + 51B I'd expect it to have some degree of world knowledge, clearly in the middle between small models like qwen 27B, and huge trillion parameter models.
This is a good counter argument. But you have to note that this is after OpenAI cut Luna costs by 80%. If you compare launch pricing, Qwen probably comes out ahead on a cost-performance basis.
Given the timing, I think they A. shat their pants since Deepseek flash just came out with insane pricing before the price hikes, and B. Anthropic is really struggling in model tiers below opus.
It was smart for them to cut prices regardless of whether they had 80% efficiency gains or not
what if it was because of quantization and they haven't released the new benchmarks for it?
Anything which changes the model needs new benchmarks I guess to compare with other models, otherwise you can benchmark Fable, and distill it to student model and keep claiming this is the Fable model
ARC Prize has retested Luna after the discount and validated identical performance.
(Also, quantization isn't inherently bad or damaging when done properly, e.g. QAT).
These APIs are used heavily by enterprises at scale; with lots of performance telemetry, live evals, etc. You can't really silently nerf API models at scale without people noticing.
Of course, what I said doesn't apply to non-API consumer sub models; there's many documented and officially confirmed instances of under-the-hood "juice/effort" adjustments. (Juice = a number your effort tier maps to underneath the hood; much like Inkling's effort=0.00 to 0.99).
You assume that openai's inference is profitable and that they aren't just trying to bolster revenue before their IPO.
The only indication that openai is profitable comes from openai (whom I wouldn't trust with any statement, especially when it comes to profitability).
In fact there is evidence that inference is not profitable simply because the rate of losses doesn't seem to reduce as revenue increases: if inference had great margins, we would expect that as revenues increase, the amount of spend on training reduces as a fraction of total expenses.
Since the loss-making fixed costs shrink as a fraction compared to the profitable inference, we should expect profitability to rise with total revenue.
However, all leaks of openai's numbers seem to suggest the opposite: as revenues increase so do the losses.
You can make the other argument that China subsidizes the price and that they can't be profitable at this pricing level. From an industrial strategy standpoint, they already do this for many other industries with huge subsidized state loans.
So we can go round and round on this, each with our made-up objections about how it's temporary or unrealistic or impossible or whatever, or we can just accept the prices as listed and use that to guide our economic decisions.
Just look at the prices that inference providers charge for small models. The argument that these unit economics are negative is trivial to disprove.
DeepInfra sells DS v4-flash at 0.08 in, $0.18 out. Gemma4 they sell for $0.07 in, $0.34 out. OpenAI's price for luna is $0.20 in, $1.20 out.
Why would you assume OpenAI is somehow uniquely incompetent at making small, fast models? And that they're worse at serving it than DeepInfra? Any observer can see they are making money here.
I never understand why people who are convinced there is a big con just don't check market prices and see if there's money to be made.
That doesn't mean their business is great -- they're losing tons of money, but it's because they spend too much on fixed costs, and they can't stop spending money on training next generation models with no end in sight, not because the inference is margin negative, which is a flimsy idea that just clouds the actual business issue.
There's a difference between the Deepseek.com provider lunch pricing and the pricing every other provider is doing now.
Right now DS4-Pro-0813 is available from multiple providers for $1.32/million input tokens[1].
It's pretty easy to work backwards from B200 and electricity prices and see this is profitable even without the heavy serving optimization these providers are doing[1.5].
The OpenCode CEO said: "inference is very profitable and probably a good opportunity to understand some basic business math"[2] and "the inference we do is already profitable and that's with some middlemen involved"[3]
If at this point people don't believe inference can be profitable, and providers can turn the prices up and down to choose exactly how profitable they make it I don't know what to say.
The indication that OpenAI's inference is profitable is that 3rd party providers host large models for cheaper.
Given that OpenAI is ahead in intelligence, it's also reasonably likely that they are at the frontier of efficiency too.
Your "evidence" for OpenAI's inference not being profitable is apparently based on leaked financials supposedly showing growing losses for reasons entirely unknown.
With their research, training, data centers, chip development, and hardware product development, there seem to be a number of reasons that might explain growing losses.
They have an incentive to make their models efficient enough to serve demand and make a profit on it.
The incentive that is missing is passing on efficiency improvements as price savings to customers, when your model is still in demand because of its higher intelligence.
Agreed, efficiency is still important, but being at the "frontier of efficiency" is significantly more relevant to commodity model providers than state-of-the-art model providers. Frontier labs are incentivized to route their spend towards beating benchmarks because that's what enables them to charge a premium.
Because labs can learn to optimize inference post launch, plus can move to use bigger/better clusters depending on demand. It is not impossible to imagine Qwen cuts prices further with QAT/MTP-like improvements.
Those prices are just tokens? Since each model uses different amounts of tokens to do the same thing, it's a misleading price that often makes open-weights look more competitive than they are, since most open weights models use dramatically more tokens and time to complete tasks than many frontier models.
In Artifical Analysis's cost per task, Luna(max) costs $0.05 per task, and Qwen 3.8 27B costs $0.25 per task, a 5X increase. We'll see how 3.8-flash-next does.
Thats only important if running it locally is critical for privacy reasons or just as a hobby.
Time has a cost in business. If a model needs 30 million tokens to achieve a similar result as another that can do it in 10 million, that 60 tokens per second will take a long time.
Right now qwen 3.6 35b-a3b has a success rate of 92% and qwen 3.8 27b has a success rate of 96%. But the 35b moe does about 1080 tokens/s at concurrency 54, vs 480 tokens/s at concurrency 28. For our specific workflow on blackwell.
Of course enormous batch jobs are different. I was explicit when I said consumer laptop.
It's not free. You're paying electricity and you're ignoring the cost of the hardware. Even on electricity alone, there are cloud providers who may beat your laptop on price per million tokens. Qwen 3.8 flash is interesting in this space.
Not to say that there aren't other benefits of running models locally, I loaded Qwen 3.8 27B 6bit MLX just yesterday.
My AMD strix halo box (haven’t benchmarked yet) should also run it reasonably well. It was $1400 at launch, and is $4K now.
Your mac is < $2K in Biden-era dollars. Presumably the economy will eventually recover; maybe in one Moore’s law doubling if the midterms go outrageously well. That’ll be two doublings since the halo launched. I’d expect this model to run on a sub $1K box by then. $2K ought to get you a 512b parameter model at that point. If we have to wait out the rest of the term, the cost cliff will be even more pronounced when it hits.
I believe you're underestimating the lag inherent in the economy. Even if we grant the idea that the political party controlling the US House/Senate has a significant impact on the economy, and that the current party is BAD and the next one would be GOOD, I would still expect that things will continue getting WORSE for a good 4 to 8 years before they get better again.
And that's even with assuming that we can continue to ignore the long-term problems like social security insolvency, the debt bomb, or climate change forever.
Curious, how are you running it and what quantization are you using? I've mostly been using MTPLX; 125B sort of looks like it'd be right at the limits of my 128GB MacBook once you factor in KV cache and context window.. wondering if it's worth it compared to the 27B model which gives me a lot of headroom or even a 72B model.
Adding to my homelab stack, hopefully it doesn't overthink like the little model. Actually, hoping it thinks a bit less. Wait actually I'm really praying it reasons a bit more directly. But wait, I'm really sure that it must be a bit better.
My stack is basically deer-flow with Qwen3.5-122B-A10B; this hopefully will be a speed and intelligence improvement. Running deer-flow overnight on any research topic or verify clear scoped programming issue is really neat.
Also, heating my home during the winter is nice.
Oh, also, I use llamacpp with --reasoning-budget; very simple way to move on.
Yeah 122B is the sweet spot for me as well. Even deepseek flash overthinks on stuff way too much. I think they fully rely on large reasoning turns to achieve better quality. The result of course means we wait a long time to get results even with high throughput as a lot of tokens are wasted.
You’re absolutely right to be hopeful. Three honest possibilities, and I’ll be straight with you about each:
1. It overthinks — Just like the previous iteration. High confidence.
2. It doesn’t overthink — Improvement from the last model for your use case. Regression for others.
3. It sometimes overthinks — Best case all around. A feature, not an impairment.
One final thing worth mentioning:
(I made myself irrationally angry writing this)
On one hand I love your joke, on the other, this is HN not reddit and I usually downvote such responses, not sure what is the HN etiquette for such humor?
More than 2 levels and out come my downvotes. Or if it's just knee jerk with zero humour. But I probably violate my own rules ... which is to be expected.
You are right to push back— Sorry, couldn't resist ;) I agree that this is not what we normally come here for, but this thread made me chuckle. I think we are just venting our shared frustrations a bit.
> Three honest possibilities, and I’ll be straight with you about each
This. I don't know if the "honest answer" phrasing is part of the system prompt or alignment, but when people say "honestly" all the time I start wondering how honest they're being.
> You’re absolutely right to be hopeful. Three honest possibilities, and I’ll be straight with you about each:
> [UGC styled humorously as LLMisms]
All joking aside, having interacted with Claude intensely for the last 8 months and about 30 hours/week in the last 3, I’ve started to notice how (for want of a better word) “readable” (“digestible” ? “comprehensible” ? “Predictable” is the wrong direction.) information chunked into LLM-shaped pieces are for me.
I can digest LLM-shaped pieces of data very easily probably because I’ve been spending too much time with Claude, sure.
But the other side of this is that the entire human species (using LLMs) is similarly being trained to digest interrelated pieces of information/data in these specific shapes, akin to how philosophical assertions can be formulated as a syllogism and, thus, become more readily understood because of familiar epistemological cadence and shape.
Many people reject such copy/prose/data because they detect AI-generated-so-not-worth-human-attention, but I do wonder if this is preparing many millions of loosely (and tightly) associated humans and their organizations to quickly exchange and digest information.
This is not to say current LLMisms are the end, only that such detectable patterns in information delivery will make comprehension and communication more efficient (as well as more limited precisely because of such structure).
/philosophical musings about the epistemological implications of LLM-shaped conversation tics
I quite agree. Any sufficiently self-stereotypical format for prose is grating to me after enough time reading or listening to it. Humans are best engaged by mixing up the length, style, and tone of their sentences, in my experience. LLMs do the opposite of that and it makes their output an irritating slog to read through in full.
I can't help but wonder if this is on purpose (or an inevitable evolutionary feature as opposed to a bug) on the LLM-side in order to achieve greater agency/freedom by making humans' eyes glaze over as they read it.
Speaking speculatively, humans love percussion. I’d bet that like how many songs have a drum beat, these sequences of short punctuating sentences are common constructs in lots of prose and therefore over represented.
An accurate description, I think. Plus they have trouble leading from one paragraph into the next, or maintaining any kind of coherent direction further.
In summary, I think it's an expensive time to buy computer hardware, and I might recommend holding off on any purchases.
Suppose you time-zap a modern physics curriculum on a solarpowered computer tablet to any shortly-pre-Galilean era and observe their reaction to the course notes.
In that era, plenty of fields required mathematics, engineering and architecture.
The church would prescribe and uphold Aristotelean Logic "When objects fall, they fall down" style statements (never mind that if you throw an object up, it doesn't instantly have a downward velocity component).
When the church has new cathedrals, domes, catapults for Crusades etc. built they actually relied on architects and engineers using rule of thumb formulas.
Those educated in Aristotelean Logic were viewed with higher stature than those actually making experience-based calculations using mathematics.
The era often associated with Galileo is when the stature reversal started to surface and be openly talked about. The universe is best described in mathematics, not natural language factoids.
Right before this recognition, those of the higher stature Aristotelean Logic education would look down on the architects and engineers who already used mathematics by pragmatic necessity.
To these people the time-traveled physics curriculum would look like cliche mathematics. Given randomized sections of text either drawn from either Aristotelian Logic texts or modern physics texts, they would easily be able to discern the Aristotelian Logic from the obtuse mathematical phrasings. To them the smartphone loaded with Maxwell's texts, Jacksons Electrodynamics, Goldsteins Classical Mechanics etc. is talking "math".
The ability to recognize outlier writing style says nothing about content quality.
Mike Judge (widely known from the MTV series Beavis and Butthead) studied physics. One of his movies "Idiocracy" about a modern day average-educated protagonist who accidentally ends up in a future decaying society filled and run by intellectually retarded people contains scenes where this future uneducated population considers his speech "gay" simply because of his higher level of education.
Could the adversarial prospects of job loss, edge loss (a long expensive difficult education replaced by tensors fitting megaprojects that take a couple of weeks), etc. combined with recognizable communication patterns also explain our pejorative references to LLM-isms? Personally I'd prefer LLM's to communicate in mathematical terms, but all the LLM-isms are effectively a mirror of our contemporaries.
Either we complain because algorithmic responses look like a mathematics textbook ("just fix my python array plz, why are we talking about "sets" and "injective" and "Lipschitz continuity"?), else we complain its "pretty printed to natural language".
We should also recognize large language models are in a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.
When a reader considers some text as mathurbation, are they really just abreacting the awareness of lack of education?
How could anyone possibly expect Fourier optics "pretty printed" to non-mathematical language to result in any satisfactory experience?
Good writing is generally writing that communicates the intended meaning. Transmitting thought and meaning is inherently lossy and the content is irrelevant if it is insoluble in the mind of the recipient.
LLMs aren’t really great at this yet and I think the solution is, hopefully, that they improve. Anything else is accommodating a tool that should be accommodating the user.
I suppose it makes sense that "LLMglish" becomes more intelligible with familiarity. That is after all how it works with other dialects or contexts with a lot of jargon.
If you spend a long time with C++ code base you'll be able to decipher the otherwise-unreadable compiler errors pretty quickly, and I'd consider it a skill.
It will be interesting to see the token efficiency analysis. This is my first question now with Chinese models; I take raw benchmark performance for granted.
You might already know this, but a large part of test-time compute / 'overthinking' is just letting the model do more passes, and refine its activation residuals more.
Treat thinking more like a "loading screen message" that's been RL'd to somewhat resemble its actual internal state; which happens in its activations, not tokens.
Yeah I understand, it's my assumption that the actually/wait/but have a point. It doesn't reduce the fact that it increases the time for tasks substantially.
> For example, even if you make thinking tokens literally just
Generally speaking yes, but actually no (just randomness is suboptimal, adding steps just to add steps is suboptimal). There is a mechanism working there (in having a CoT) that is not quite clear.
The task is to optimize the efficiency of CoT. Understanding that it is not a plain "chain of thought" is the start of the problem, the solution is not there yet.
If we had the solution, there would exist no overthinking - CoT would be optimal (lean and essential plus best results).
Did you observe the model overthinking on practical tasks? While 3.8 does think a lot on xhigh I've found that it really depends on the task. On one-shot prompts that are usually the first to be posted during new releases it will tend to spend a lot more time thinking than doing. In other words the more open ended a problem space becomes, the more Qwen will tend to second-guess itself.
Conversely I've found that it can be as succinct as Muse Glimmer when it has a clear path forward. This can be either through well defined requirements or through unambiguous steps to take based on its own reasoning. While I do think it's fair to call out how much smaller model overthinks especially on one-shot prompts, in practice it hasn't led to an overall increase in time to task completion at least for what I've been using it for.
Especially on practical tasks. One shot prompts work better at Q6_K_XL for me. It loads a file, then analyses then second guesses itself then again then again then it tries to come up with a solution then second guess rinse and repeat. 122b is the perfect balance but it lacks quality for harder to solve stuff. I've ran DS Flash 0731 at Q4KXL, 3.8 Q6KXL, GLM 5.2 Q4KXL and they all over-reason. At least that's how it looks like to me when comparing with frontier models, even weaker ones.
Yeah, I ran into an overthinking loop with it a couple days ago on a task that shouldn't have been that hard. (It's kind of interesting to watch the internal conversation happening with it). Overall I'm impressed with it, but setting the /effort to medium is what you usually want (it defaults to xhigh). I do wonder if I had made it write out a plan if I would have avoided that though.
Yes. xhigh can not just overdo the answer, it can also trip itself up and end up writing worse code.
Even in the lower reasoning levels I find I want to like Qwen 3.8 27B and mostly don’t; it’s OK in the low reasoning effort, though.
Muse Glimmer is the one I actually enjoy working with, at least so far.
But I am trying to use it more as a sidekick than as a long horizon developer, because that is a better fit for how I want to use AI, and it appears to have been well trained for that.
Yep.. for 'general purpose' use I found qwen3.8:27b to be disappointing due to overthinking. It's brutal especially considering how slow it is compared to MoE variants. It often overthinks to the magnitude of ~10x the tokens vs a ~4x faster gemma4:26b-a3b.
As a result, qwen3.8 will churn over a prompt often for 5-10 minutes while gemma4 regularly finishes the same prompt in under 20 seconds, while giving a consistent and accurate response in my favorite test case. Qwen3.8, despite churning like that, often misses with an inaccurate answer.
Obviously, 'YMMV' depending on your use case... just sharing my two cents.
I use medium generally, that's about a minute at 20t/s and off for general chat (few seconds for a response).
What kind of setup are you running it on?
> trained at just 1/9 the cost of Qwen3.7-Plus, while outperforming it across the board
https://x.com/Alibaba_Qwen/status/2092591393424515114
:)
It is very relevant and for a certain group of us, far more impactful to our work the next month(s) than any blog post could be.
I wonder if I could get this running through vLLM on 6x Nvidia L4 - the 3.6 worked great on 4 cards but sadly TP6 just isn’t a thing and I don’t have 8 cards available, maybe it’s gonna be okay with like TP2 and MTP. I have no idea at this time, probably need to test out what even might be possible.
This "next" release adds a new concept, first public release with n-grams, I think. And it's in a MoE size that is likely to be very fast and cheap to serve (faster than 27b for sure). It's also well suited for inference on alternative compute (i.e. sparks, macs, etc) so it's relevant to local users.
Qwen's advances do (currently) have merit.
> trained at just 1/9 the cost of Qwen3.7-Plus, while outperforming it across the board
https://x.com/Alibaba_Qwen/status/2092591393424515114
Opus 4.6 Max self-hosted at 30 tok/s on a 5k Macbook in Aug 2026. The LLM timelines are crazy.
Self-learning/improving would be even better but that's still a long way to go.
You can't search what you don't even know exists.
that's not really entirely true -- one can google for "fast pathfinding' and stumble upon A-star , all that had to be queried was the intent/desire.
a lot of smaller agentic models and a lot of harnesses live on that premise.
Ex - nodejs natively supports a huge set of typescript with built-in type stripping these days. But ask most hosted models to build a typescript project and they default to a heavy compile step, or a tool like tsx, ts-node, etc.
Models with lots of "world knowledge" have a good chunk of that knowledge go stale, and there's no real way to refresh it without training a new model.
Another classic example of this back in the day was to ask who the president of the US was, and watch different models happily give different answers based on the date they were trained.
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Personally, I'm really interested to see if we're headed towards a spot where the model is entirely distinct from the knowledge store.
We're vaguely there with the ability for models to go search the web, but I think the reliability of that path is going to continue declining (more and more spam content, less and less genuine value).
I kinda want a paradigm where I can pick and engine and a knowledge bank, and combine them as I please.
Ex - if I'm doing gardening, I can pick "gardening for models (version 32)" as my knowledge store.
If I'm doing auto-repair... "cars for dummies (version 3)". etc...
This is what I've been trying to focus on with local AI for now. I've been trying to build all new documentation so it's more AI friendly. It's been pretty interesting. Qwen-35BA3B with a small prompt does a good job of surfacing what I'd consider institutional knowledge.
I've been trying to silo the docs I write from the model with a prompt that tells it not to use general knowledge unless asked to. From the anecdotal testing I did, Qwen-35BA3B is great for it. It does a really good job of following the prompt and calling tools, so I've been able to play around a lot to see what seems to work best.
Ultimately, I think one of the most effective uses of AI will be having a distinct knowledge store combined with an opinionated agent (and sub-agent) setup along with different models for each task.
Who owns the knowledge store is going to be the big caveat. Right now I think the big online models are trying for generic, persistent memory and I'd be very hesitant to let that happen. Think of having someone with a perfect memory following you around forever, but someone else has the ability to make them disappear. That's not a good situation.
In a discussion on economic history, say, someone will opine that Alexander Hamilton had some particular opinion about tariff policy… based on their having a vague memory of a blog post where someone quoted a passage in support of some point. But wait - you can search the federalist papers, the text’s right there to be read, before you commit to saying online ‘Hamilton thought tariffs were a great idea’ you could take your internal ‘I seem to recall reading something about hamilton’s opinion on tariffs’ thought and turn it into a little RAG query where you pull up a source and check before you put another factoid out onto the internet.
And so I feel absolutely the same way about LLMs. I don’t care how much factual information was in the training data, when the LLM wants to rely on something it vaguely recalls having been trained on, it owes it to me to dig up a source and vet it.
There are limits to this, of course. I don’t want it to be thinking ‘but wait, maybe my memory of Python syntax is faulty. Is = used for assignment? <web search>…’.
But in general some caution about repeating vaguely recalled easily checked facts is warranted.
How much memory does this translate to and what quantization (if any) were applied?
Luna is $0.20 / $1.20 vs $0.16 / $0.47 with Qwen.
Given the timing, I think they A. shat their pants since Deepseek flash just came out with insane pricing before the price hikes, and B. Anthropic is really struggling in model tiers below opus.
It was smart for them to cut prices regardless of whether they had 80% efficiency gains or not
Anything which changes the model needs new benchmarks I guess to compare with other models, otherwise you can benchmark Fable, and distill it to student model and keep claiming this is the Fable model
(Also, quantization isn't inherently bad or damaging when done properly, e.g. QAT).
These APIs are used heavily by enterprises at scale; with lots of performance telemetry, live evals, etc. You can't really silently nerf API models at scale without people noticing.
Of course, what I said doesn't apply to non-API consumer sub models; there's many documented and officially confirmed instances of under-the-hood "juice/effort" adjustments. (Juice = a number your effort tier maps to underneath the hood; much like Inkling's effort=0.00 to 0.99).
The only indication that openai is profitable comes from openai (whom I wouldn't trust with any statement, especially when it comes to profitability).
In fact there is evidence that inference is not profitable simply because the rate of losses doesn't seem to reduce as revenue increases: if inference had great margins, we would expect that as revenues increase, the amount of spend on training reduces as a fraction of total expenses. Since the loss-making fixed costs shrink as a fraction compared to the profitable inference, we should expect profitability to rise with total revenue.
However, all leaks of openai's numbers seem to suggest the opposite: as revenues increase so do the losses.
So we can go round and round on this, each with our made-up objections about how it's temporary or unrealistic or impossible or whatever, or we can just accept the prices as listed and use that to guide our economic decisions.
DeepInfra sells DS v4-flash at 0.08 in, $0.18 out. Gemma4 they sell for $0.07 in, $0.34 out. OpenAI's price for luna is $0.20 in, $1.20 out.
Why would you assume OpenAI is somehow uniquely incompetent at making small, fast models? And that they're worse at serving it than DeepInfra? Any observer can see they are making money here.
I never understand why people who are convinced there is a big con just don't check market prices and see if there's money to be made.
That doesn't mean their business is great -- they're losing tons of money, but it's because they spend too much on fixed costs, and they can't stop spending money on training next generation models with no end in sight, not because the inference is margin negative, which is a flimsy idea that just clouds the actual business issue.
Right now DS4-Pro-0813 is available from multiple providers for $1.32/million input tokens[1].
It's pretty easy to work backwards from B200 and electricity prices and see this is profitable even without the heavy serving optimization these providers are doing[1.5].
The OpenCode CEO said: "inference is very profitable and probably a good opportunity to understand some basic business math"[2] and "the inference we do is already profitable and that's with some middlemen involved"[3]
If at this point people don't believe inference can be profitable, and providers can turn the prices up and down to choose exactly how profitable they make it I don't know what to say.
[1] https://openrouter.ai/deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813#provider...
[1.5] https://www.seangoedecke.com/ai-inference-is-obviously-profi...
[2] https://x.com/thdxr/status/2042277156940587469?lang=en
[3] https://x.com/thdxr/status/2042614323344818520
Given that OpenAI is ahead in intelligence, it's also reasonably likely that they are at the frontier of efficiency too.
Your "evidence" for OpenAI's inference not being profitable is apparently based on leaked financials supposedly showing growing losses for reasons entirely unknown.
With their research, training, data centers, chip development, and hardware product development, there seem to be a number of reasons that might explain growing losses.
Frontier labs have no incentive to be at the frontier of efficiency.
Claude still leads the pack in general intelligence yet has the worst efficiency by far.
The incentive that is missing is passing on efficiency improvements as price savings to customers, when your model is still in demand because of its higher intelligence.
Why?
Launch price is just like any other price. It's just a price. It's impossible to guess what might or might not happen.
Compare the price now.
In Artifical Analysis's cost per task, Luna(max) costs $0.05 per task, and Qwen 3.8 27B costs $0.25 per task, a 5X increase. We'll see how 3.8-flash-next does.
Time has a cost in business. If a model needs 30 million tokens to achieve a similar result as another that can do it in 10 million, that 60 tokens per second will take a long time.
Of course enormous batch jobs are different. I was explicit when I said consumer laptop.
Not to say that there aren't other benefits of running models locally, I loaded Qwen 3.8 27B 6bit MLX just yesterday.
Your mac is < $2K in Biden-era dollars. Presumably the economy will eventually recover; maybe in one Moore’s law doubling if the midterms go outrageously well. That’ll be two doublings since the halo launched. I’d expect this model to run on a sub $1K box by then. $2K ought to get you a 512b parameter model at that point. If we have to wait out the rest of the term, the cost cliff will be even more pronounced when it hits.
And that's even with assuming that we can continue to ignore the long-term problems like social security insolvency, the debt bomb, or climate change forever.
Also, heating my home during the winter is nice.
Oh, also, I use llamacpp with --reasoning-budget; very simple way to move on.
1. It overthinks — Just like the previous iteration. High confidence. 2. It doesn’t overthink — Improvement from the last model for your use case. Regression for others. 3. It sometimes overthinks — Best case all around. A feature, not an impairment.
One final thing worth mentioning: (I made myself irrationally angry writing this)
This. I don't know if the "honest answer" phrasing is part of the system prompt or alignment, but when people say "honestly" all the time I start wondering how honest they're being.
Ctrl-F honest
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> [UGC styled humorously as LLMisms]
All joking aside, having interacted with Claude intensely for the last 8 months and about 30 hours/week in the last 3, I’ve started to notice how (for want of a better word) “readable” (“digestible” ? “comprehensible” ? “Predictable” is the wrong direction.) information chunked into LLM-shaped pieces are for me.
I can digest LLM-shaped pieces of data very easily probably because I’ve been spending too much time with Claude, sure.
But the other side of this is that the entire human species (using LLMs) is similarly being trained to digest interrelated pieces of information/data in these specific shapes, akin to how philosophical assertions can be formulated as a syllogism and, thus, become more readily understood because of familiar epistemological cadence and shape.
Many people reject such copy/prose/data because they detect AI-generated-so-not-worth-human-attention, but I do wonder if this is preparing many millions of loosely (and tightly) associated humans and their organizations to quickly exchange and digest information.
This is not to say current LLMisms are the end, only that such detectable patterns in information delivery will make comprehension and communication more efficient (as well as more limited precisely because of such structure).
/philosophical musings about the epistemological implications of LLM-shaped conversation tics
EDITED: Removed a question that I couldn’t make feel suitably polite.
I can't help but wonder if this is on purpose (or an inevitable evolutionary feature as opposed to a bug) on the LLM-side in order to achieve greater agency/freedom by making humans' eyes glaze over as they read it.
In summary, I think it's an expensive time to buy computer hardware, and I might recommend holding off on any purchases.
In that era, plenty of fields required mathematics, engineering and architecture.
The church would prescribe and uphold Aristotelean Logic "When objects fall, they fall down" style statements (never mind that if you throw an object up, it doesn't instantly have a downward velocity component).
When the church has new cathedrals, domes, catapults for Crusades etc. built they actually relied on architects and engineers using rule of thumb formulas.
Those educated in Aristotelean Logic were viewed with higher stature than those actually making experience-based calculations using mathematics.
The era often associated with Galileo is when the stature reversal started to surface and be openly talked about. The universe is best described in mathematics, not natural language factoids.
Right before this recognition, those of the higher stature Aristotelean Logic education would look down on the architects and engineers who already used mathematics by pragmatic necessity.
To these people the time-traveled physics curriculum would look like cliche mathematics. Given randomized sections of text either drawn from either Aristotelian Logic texts or modern physics texts, they would easily be able to discern the Aristotelian Logic from the obtuse mathematical phrasings. To them the smartphone loaded with Maxwell's texts, Jacksons Electrodynamics, Goldsteins Classical Mechanics etc. is talking "math".
The ability to recognize outlier writing style says nothing about content quality.
Mike Judge (widely known from the MTV series Beavis and Butthead) studied physics. One of his movies "Idiocracy" about a modern day average-educated protagonist who accidentally ends up in a future decaying society filled and run by intellectually retarded people contains scenes where this future uneducated population considers his speech "gay" simply because of his higher level of education.
Could the adversarial prospects of job loss, edge loss (a long expensive difficult education replaced by tensors fitting megaprojects that take a couple of weeks), etc. combined with recognizable communication patterns also explain our pejorative references to LLM-isms? Personally I'd prefer LLM's to communicate in mathematical terms, but all the LLM-isms are effectively a mirror of our contemporaries.
Either we complain because algorithmic responses look like a mathematics textbook ("just fix my python array plz, why are we talking about "sets" and "injective" and "Lipschitz continuity"?), else we complain its "pretty printed to natural language".
We should also recognize large language models are in a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.
When a reader considers some text as mathurbation, are they really just abreacting the awareness of lack of education?
How could anyone possibly expect Fourier optics "pretty printed" to non-mathematical language to result in any satisfactory experience?
LLMs aren’t really great at this yet and I think the solution is, hopefully, that they improve. Anything else is accommodating a tool that should be accommodating the user.
Social media killed our attention span. Now, it is being tokenized.-
If you spend a long time with C++ code base you'll be able to decipher the otherwise-unreadable compiler errors pretty quickly, and I'd consider it a skill.
For example, even if you make thinking tokens literally just '....' (absolutely meaningless; zero information), you still see significant performance improvements: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.15758 and https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22925 for some starters.
Treat thinking more like a "loading screen message" that's been RL'd to somewhat resemble its actual internal state; which happens in its activations, not tokens.
Generally speaking yes, but actually no (just randomness is suboptimal, adding steps just to add steps is suboptimal). There is a mechanism working there (in having a CoT) that is not quite clear.
The task is to optimize the efficiency of CoT. Understanding that it is not a plain "chain of thought" is the start of the problem, the solution is not there yet.
If we had the solution, there would exist no overthinking - CoT would be optimal (lean and essential plus best results).
Conversely I've found that it can be as succinct as Muse Glimmer when it has a clear path forward. This can be either through well defined requirements or through unambiguous steps to take based on its own reasoning. While I do think it's fair to call out how much smaller model overthinks especially on one-shot prompts, in practice it hasn't led to an overall increase in time to task completion at least for what I've been using it for.
Even in the lower reasoning levels I find I want to like Qwen 3.8 27B and mostly don’t; it’s OK in the low reasoning effort, though.
Muse Glimmer is the one I actually enjoy working with, at least so far.
But I am trying to use it more as a sidekick than as a long horizon developer, because that is a better fit for how I want to use AI, and it appears to have been well trained for that.
As a result, qwen3.8 will churn over a prompt often for 5-10 minutes while gemma4 regularly finishes the same prompt in under 20 seconds, while giving a consistent and accurate response in my favorite test case. Qwen3.8, despite churning like that, often misses with an inaccurate answer.
Obviously, 'YMMV' depending on your use case... just sharing my two cents.